CMC Markets专栏: 纽币有望成功筑底反弹

乳制品价格的逐步回稳与美国暂时保持利息率不变的决议使得纽币近日出现较大程度反弹。9月份非农业就业数据远差于预期，也是利好纽币的直接因素。根据澳纽银行的预测，新西兰官方利率可能不会再急于下调，纽币会逐步实现暂时回稳，新西兰经济可能会实现“软着陆”。
 
技术形态上来看，纽币/美元逐步形成筑底反弹形态，有可能向上继续反弹挑战前在阻力位置0.6730附近，然后是0.6920附近。
 
短期技术图形日线图上看，纽币对美元已经站在200天均线之上，目前正在试探挑战阻力位置0.6500附近，很有可能突破形成另一波涨势。中长期图形周线图上看，在连续5周多次试探下方支持位置0.6250附近后，纽币终于在本周成功上破阻力位置0.6450附近。结合技术指标来看，价格与Stoch形成了较为完美的潜在牛背离形态，再次表明纽币有可能突破目前阻力位置向上突破。上方潜在多头目标可能在0.6730附近（黄金分割线61.8%），然后是0.6920附近（黄金分割线50.0%）.

另外，新西兰贸易部长Tim Groser表示，新西兰会在昨日初步达成的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协议》TTPA中受益匪浅，尤其是其乳品行业将有可能以更低的关税进入美国，日本，加拿大与墨西哥。新西兰将由可能节省2590万纽币的关税开支。TTPA协议可能在近2年步入实施。
 
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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。