CMC Markets专栏:纽币仍弱势 潜在空头在哪

纽币虽说本周有明显反弹走势，但需要注意的是不可轻易跟涨，无论从技术图型还是基本面上，并没有助长纽币的绝对因素。纽币仍然弱势，潜在的下行趋势仍然强烈。

基本面上，由于乳品价格持续下滑，2016年开年不利，两次乳品拍卖价格连跌。加之中国经济处在风险时期，对投资信心的消极影响可能将导致商品货币的继续走低。新西兰央行将在28日在此举行议息会议，市场对于此次官方利率的预期是保持在2.5%不变，但有可能在本次会议中会有较为鸽派的言论导致市场对于新西兰经济前景预期不佳。

技术形态上，纽币对美元上方的阻力很强， 能够上破的机会很小。很可能会在反弹后，再次冲低。短期反弹的潜在目标可能在0.6600附近，这里也将是潜在空头再次入场的位置，下方潜在的空头目标收看前低附近0.6240，如果再度突破下行，则长期空头有可能在0.5980左右的位置。

从上方技术图表中可以看到纽币/美元的轴线图双顶的形态较为明显，颈线位置在0.6600附近（同时示保利加通道中轨附近的位置）。目前的反弹形态有可能反弹至颈线位置0.6600后再次受阻下行，市场的空头可能会对这个位置试目以待，再次进场做跌纽币。则下放潜在的目标将可能在保利加通道下轨附近的0.6240左右，也是周线图前低附近。

而月线图中更加体现出纽币上方阻力之强，尤其是连续4个月没有突破0.6900的阻力位置，本月目前的较长的阴柱表明空头能量仍然较强，如果用黄金分割延展线来看，则纽币对美元的下放长期目标有可能在0.5980附近。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。